WorkShop200807

Earthquake Research Institute, Cooperative Research Meeting

  Physics- and Statistical-Based Models of Seismicity and Earthquake Forecasts

July 17-18, 2008, 1st Conference Room (Building #2), Earthquake Research Institute

July 17 morning

Session Chairs (T. Ishibe & T. Iwata)

• 10:00-10:05 Introduction
  • Naoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 10:05-10:25 Correlation between strain localization and large earthquake occurrences: Which is the cause?
  • Niko Shimazaki (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo) & ……

• 10:25-10:45 The dependency of the b-value on focal depth and focal mechanism
  • Takeo Ishibe (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 10:45-11:05 Seismicity anomalies relative to the ETAS model
  • Yosi Ogata (ISM)

• 11:05-11:25 Slip distribution of large earthquakes, estimated from aftershock distributions
  • Takaki Iwata (Waseda Univ.), Shinji Toda (AIST) & Yosi Ogata (ISM)

• 11:25-11:45 Seismicity rate change associated with long-term slow slip events estimated by numerical simulation (in Japanese)
  • Kenji Maeda, Fuyuki Hirose & Hiroyuki Takayama (Meteorological Research Institute)

• 11:45-12:05 Spatio-temporal changes of aftershock activity and stress changes of the 2006 Kuril Islands earthquake
  • Shinji Toda (AIST) & Yosi Ogata (ISM)

July 17 afternoon

Session Chairs (K. Katsumata & K. Maeda)

• 13:20-13:40 On recent anomaly of crustal activity in the northern Kinki district
  • Hiroshi Katao (DPRI, Kyoto Univ.)

• 13:40-14:00 On recent seismic quiescence of a Tohoku offshore region
  • Ritsuko S. Matsu'ura (ERC, ADEP)

• 14:00-14:20 Seismic quiescence for the 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki earthquake and the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake
  • Kei Katsumata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 14:20-14:40 Correlated seismicity in and around Japan Islands
  • Igarashi Toshihiro (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 14:40-15:00 Application of a new method of time series analysis "Natural time" to seismicity
  • Yuki Tomizawa (Tokyo Gakugei Univ.), Hitoshi Kamogawa (Tokyo Gakugei Univ.), Yoshiyasu Nagao (Tokai Univ.) & Seiya Uyeda (Tokai Univ.)

• 15:00-15:20 Application of Russian-developed-methods RTL and M8 to Japanese seismicity
  • Yoshiyasu Nagao (Tokai Univ.), Kenji Nakamura (Tokai Univ.), Q. Huang (Peking Univ.), Ken Kudo (Chubu Univ.), Jun Izutsu (Chubu Univ.), G. Sobolev (Russian Academy of Science) & Seiya Uyeda (Tokai Univ.)

• 15:20-15:30 break

Session Chairs (S. Toda & H. Tsuruoka)

• 15:30-15:50 Earthquake catalog, stationarity and long-range correlation of seismic activity
  • Shin-ichi Noguchi (NIED)

• 15:50-16:10 Correlation between seismicity and crustal heat flow for inland regions
  • Takumi Matsumoto (NIED)

• 16:10-16:30 Seismic velocity structure for regions of earthquake occurrence
  • Makoto Matsubara (NIED)

• 16:30-16:50 Constructing common ground of evaluating seismicity forecasts (Progress report)
  • Hiroshi Tsuruoka (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 16:50-17:10 Increases in short-term probability prior to the 2008 off Ibaraki earthquake in Kanto, Japan
  • Masajiro Imoto & Nahoko Yamamoto (NIED)

• 17:10-17:30 Experimental forecasts and its testing for interplate small repeating earthquakes
  • Masami Okada (MRI, JMA), Naoki Uchida (RCPEVE, Tohoku Univ.) & Hiroyuki Takayama (MRI, JMA)

• 17:30-17:40 Next earthquake prediction research plan (seismicity forecast)
  • Naoshi Hirata (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)

• 18:00-20:00 Sociable

July 18 morning

Session Chairs (N. Hirata & M. Imoto)

• 10:00-10:40 Issues in the development and evaluation of earthquake probability forecasts
  • David Vere-Jones （Victoria University of Wellington & Statistical Research Associates)

• 10:40-11:20 The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
  • Danijel Schorlemmer (SCEC, Univ. of Southern California)

• 11:20-12:00 The European earthquake forecast testing center and suggestions for the start of a Japanese testing center
  • Kazu Z. Nanjo, S. Wiemer, J. Woessner, A. Christophersen, F. Euchner, M. Werner & M. Fischer (ETH Zurich)