Research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan (EFSSJ)" (the group's secretariat is located at Earthquake Research Institute (ERI)) in collaboration with Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
K. Z. Nanjo, N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, S. Yokoi (ERI) are responsible for the wording of this webpage.
Last modified on August 2011
We call for earthquake forecast models for the 3rd round of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, carried out as the Japanese node of an international project "Collaboratoy for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)" (For more information on the experiment, see the special issue [Earth Planets Space 63(3), 2011]). This is the same as the 1st call and the 2nd call. The difference from the former two is that, this time, we do not call for models in the 3-year class. More importantly, modelers are encouraged to take into account the effect of the 11 March 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake on model optimization. Because seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years, forecasts generated by the models submitted before the quake may not be skillful and reliable anymore. Thus, if you would like to withdraw your models from the experiment, please contact us. Further, before the model submission deadline, we can provide modelers with two types of the JMA catalogs in the CSEP format for model optimization and development: one is the catalog complete with final solutions for the earthquake parameters from 1 January 1965 to 28 February 2011 and the other is the preliminary determination of epicenters (PDE) catalog from 1 March 2011 to 1 August 2011 (as of 3 August 2011).
Most of forecast models require data sources such as earthquake catalogs for model development and optimization. If the JMA earthquake data are needed for such purpose, please e-mail the Testing Center. We can provide modelers with two types of the JMA catalogs in the CSEP format. One is the catalog complete with final solutions for the earthquake parameters from 1 January 1965 to 28 February 2011 and the other is the preliminary determination of epicenters (PDE) catalog from 1 March 2011 to 1 August 2011. Note that the PDE catalog, updated and revised daily, often contains erroneous locations and incomplete listings, even for large events. Ongoing process to detect and locate earthquakes by JMA is given in Table 1 (as of 3 August 2011).
Table 1. Ongoing process to detect and locate earthquakes by JMA (as of 1 August 2011)
| Period | Magnitude | Status | Open/Close | Memo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 〜Feb 28 2011 | all magnitudes | finalized catalog | Open | ||
| Mar 1 〜Mar 10 | M≧3 | PDE catalog | Open | ||
| Mar 11〜Mar 12 | M≧5 | PDE catalog | Open | ||
| M≦5 | in progress | not yet | |||
| Mar 13〜May 31 | M≧5 | PDE catalog | Open | ||
| 4≦M＜5 | in progress | Middle Oct 2011 | |||
| 3≦M＜4 | in progress | End of 2011 | |||
| Jun 1〜July 30 | M≧3 | PDE catalog | Open | Tohoku：M＞1.5 Kanto・Chubu：M＞0.5〜1（Boso off to South Ibaraki M≧2） |
Below is a brief description of the 3rd-round call-for-models. This is the same as the 1st call and the 2nd call. But, this time, we do not call for models in the 3-year class.
Our approach is based on the CSEP testing centers that are modeled after the RELM: Refer the RELM special issue [Seismol. Res. Lett., 78(1), 2007] and the CSEP website. A summary of the game's rules specific to Japan is given below.
Program code or numerical table will be submitted for each forecast model. Before model submission, each modeler must download (a) and (b), depending on your choice among the testing regions (2.2) and testing classes (2.3).
Each modeler will collaborate with staff members of the Testing Center in order to work on installation and function-check of his or her program code.
A modeler who cannot make his or her code as an open source for the 1-year testing class (2.3.3) submits a numerical table formatted according to (b). In this case, the modeler must understand that his or her model will be considered as a new participant in a planned experiment, because of no warranty to ensure objectivity on the use of the model same as that used in the present experiment. We thus encourage program-code submission.
The secretariat (N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, K. Z. Nanjo, S. Yokoi) of the research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan (EFSSJ)" is responsible for the Testing Center at Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0032 Tokyo, Japan.
