Research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan (EFSSJ)" (the group'ssecretariat is located at Earthquake Research Institute (ERI)) in collaboration with Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
K. Z. Nanjo, N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, S. Yokoi (ERI) are responsible for the wording of this webpage.
Last modified on September 2010
Japanese version webpage
EFSSJ research group in collaboration with CSEP conducts an earthquake forecast testing experiment for Japan. Main purpose is to evaluate the performance of submitted earthquake forecast models and to better understand the physics and statistics of earthquake occurrence. This is the 2nd call for models. To see a summary of the 1st one, go to here. Please read the text below and submit the following to the Testing Center (ZISINyosoku-submit@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp).
- Submission form (Japanese, English)
- Earthquake forecast model (Program code or numerical table and README file)
For the 1- and 3-year testing classes, the submission deadline is 31 October 2010. For the short-term classes (1 day and 3 months), please contact the Testing Center.
Our approach is based on the CSEP testing centers that are modeled after the RELM: Refer the RELM special issue [Seismol. Res. Lett., 78(1), 2007] and the CSEP website. A summary of the game's rules specific to Japan is given below.
- 2.1. Participants and release of test results
- 2.1.1. Modelers: Researchers who submit their earthquake forecast models: each model provides with a prospective earthquake forecast. Models cannot be withdrawn from the test without agreement of the Testing Center.
- 2.1.2. Testing Center: The facility with the CSEP infrastructure at ERI. Each earthquake forecast model is submitted to this Center and is evaluated independently from the modeler. All forecast results are stored: therefore additional prospective tests can be integrated at later stages without compromising integrity of prospective testing experiment.
- 2.1.3. Release of test results: The information on test results is closed to public access. But password-protected web pages will be used to allow a participant community to access this information.
- 2.2. Testing regions
- 2.2.1. Region that covers Japan (Fig. 1: eps, jpg) for a depth range d <= 100 km with a node spacing of 0.1°.
- 2.2.2. Region that covers the Japan's mainland (Fig. 2: eps, jpg) for d <= 30 km with a node spacing of 0.1°.
- 2.2.3. Region that covers Kanto (Fig. 3: eps, jpg) for d <= 100 km with a node spacing of 0.05°.
- 2.3. Testing classes
- 2.3.1. 1-day forecast: Forecast models must define a number of earthquakes for each magnitude bin in the magnitude range 4.0 <= M <= 9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps) at each node for consecutive 1-day time windows, each starting at midnight in Japanese Standard Time. The magnitude step M = 4.0 covers the magnitude range 3.95 <= M < 4.05.
- 2.3.2. 3-month forecast: Same as (2.3.1) but the time-window length is 3 months.
- 2.3.3. 1-year forecast: Same as (2.3.1) but the time-window length is 1 year and the magnitude range is 5.0 <= M <= 9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps).
- 2.3.4. 3-year forecast: Same as (2.3.3) but the time-window length is 3 years.
- 2.4. Future earthquakes that will be forecast: The official bulletin for future earthquakes is the revised JMA bulletin. No declustering is applied to the JMA catalog. In other words, models will be evaluated against observed earthquake data in the JMA nondeclustered catalog using the forecast evaluation methods described below (2.5).
- 2.5. Forecast evaluation methods: In spite of the testing regions (2.2) and testing classes (2.3), the official suite of tests used in the CSEP is used. Current CSEP standards include N-, L-, S-, M- and R-Tests (Schorlemmer et al., 2007, Zechar et al, 2010).
Program code or numerical table will be submitted for each forecast model. Before model submission, each modeler must download (a) and (b), depending on your choice among the testing regions (2.2) and testing classes (2.3).
- (a) GridML: List of nodes (list of longitude-latitude pairs), each at which forecast numbers of events for a predefined magnitude range are computed. For example, the node (122.45 24.15) represents the center of the box with the four edges (122.4 24.1), (122.4 24.2), (122.5 24.2), and (122.5 24.1) for the case of a node spacing of 0.1°.
- (b) ForecastML template: Template of a numerical table containing forecast numbers of events. Each model must output a numerical table in the format according to the template. Because of large file size, you may consider these points.
- Modelers may download a zip file containing one template file that have been compressed to reduce file size.
- Right-click on the "Uncompressed" and choose "Save Link As ..." from the context menu for downloading an uncompressed (original) template file.
- It may take a long time to open the template, when using a XML editor. An alternative is to use a simple word processor such as WordPad.
- Region that covers Japan（2.2.1）
- Region that covers the Japan's mainland（2.2.2）
- Region that covers Kanto（2.2.3）
Each modeler will collaborate with staff members of the Testing Center in order to work on installation and function-check of his or her program code.
A modeler who cannot make his or her code as an open source for the 1- and 3-year testing classes (2.3.3 and 2.3.4) submits a numerical table formatted according to (b). In this case, the modeler must understand that his or her model will be considered as a new participant in a planned experiment, because of no warranty to ensure objectivity on the use of the model same as that used in the present experiment. We thus encourage program-code submission.
Most of forecast models require data sources such as earthquake catalogs for model development and optimization. If the JMA earthquake data are needed for such purpose, please e-mail the Testing Center that can provide modelers with the JMA catalog in the CSEP format.
The secretariat (N. Hirata, H. Tsuruoka, K. Z. Nanjo, S. Yokoi) of the research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan (EFSSJ)" is responsible for the Testing Center at Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0032 Tokyo, Japan.
- Fig. 1. Testing region (in blue) that covers Japan (2.2.1; eps, jpg). Forecast analysis is done at nodes "+".
- Fig. 2. Testing region that covers the Japan's mainland (2.2.2; eps, jpg). See the caption in Fig. 1.
- Fig. 3. Testing region that covers Kanto (2.2.3; eps, jpg). See the caption in Fig. 1.
